Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.124638 0.138472 0.152767 0.168612 0.185648 0.203384 0.223211
2024-10-13 0.103666 0.124225 0.146631 0.172721 0.202120 0.234079 0.271301
2024-10-20 0.087843 0.112709 0.141117 0.175627 0.216060 0.261581 0.316340
2024-10-27 0.075659 0.103336 0.136326 0.177913 0.228281 0.286663 0.358768
2024-11-03 0.071224 0.102394 0.140840 0.190741 0.252747 0.326222 0.418764
2024-11-10 0.062415 0.094737 0.136057 0.191311 0.261759 0.347074 0.456600
2024-11-17 0.056096 0.089513 0.133644 0.194246 0.273268 0.370776 0.498005
2024-11-24 0.049933 0.083752 0.129868 0.194838 0.281382 0.390064 0.534018
2024-12-01 0.048003 0.083715 0.133628 0.205330 0.302377 0.425842 0.591187
2024-12-08 0.046226 0.083652 0.137189 0.215494 0.323038 0.461477 0.648722
2024-12-15 0.041982 0.079397 0.134402 0.216556 0.331295 0.480986 0.685727
2024-12-22 0.037260 0.073902 0.129365 0.214044 0.334381 0.493545 0.713729
2024-12-29 0.035851 0.073845 0.132687 0.224060 0.355645 0.531503 0.776864
2025-01-05 0.033368 0.071795 0.132885 0.229579 0.370899 0.561944 0.831003
2025-01-12 0.030711 0.069168 0.131982 0.233363 0.383756 0.589408 0.881740
2025-01-19 0.028134 0.066390 0.130606 0.236271 0.395326 0.615260 0.930711
2025-01-26 0.028323 0.068697 0.137554 0.252125 0.426031 0.668023 1.016872
2025-02-02 0.025664 0.065331 0.134881 0.252844 0.434463 0.689905 1.061293
2025-02-09 0.023768 0.063220 0.134133 0.256462 0.447161 0.717873 1.114370
2025-02-16 0.021587 0.060268 0.131702 0.257194 0.455426 0.739606 1.159049
2025-02-23 0.021434 0.061518 0.136684 0.270079 0.482346 0.788289 1.241768
2025-03-02 0.021214 0.062588 0.141351 0.282530 0.508791 0.836614 1.324516
2025-03-09 0.019480 0.060123 0.139414 0.283829 0.517923 0.859919 1.372210